– A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to . has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. Well known futurist Jorgen Randers predicts a smaller and less wealthy book A global forecast for the next forty years, so compelling.

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From a half century of progressive enlightenment and increasing well-being we are moving to a new Dark Age of hard times for the many and inordinate privilege and wealth for the few.

Randers: What does the world look like in 2052?

In one and two generations, families moved from being poor or working class to middle class and upper middle class. In the United States, reindustrialization, economic growth, broad university access, labor union—negotiated benefits, Medicare, Medicaid, and health insurance did the trick. Inthe world witnessed yet another convulsion of global markets due to US debt concerns and the unraveling of European economies. Decades of mismanagement and denial were rooted in a misplaced belief that a consumption-led growth model underpinned by excessive borrowing would 20052 prosperity for all and forever.

The turmoil in and the financial crisis 2025 had their origins in the almost religious belief of the West in free markets that has gone on randerx dominate global financial markets for the past three decades. This long-held belief that markets, technology, and finance, coupled with democracy, can offer everyone every freedom and solve all the problems of the world needs to be reconsidered, to say the very least.

Historians writing in will remark on three distinctive features of the first half of the twenty-first century. The first will be in relation to the physical environment. The next forty years will rank as one of the most crucial periods in the development of human civilization. The massive changes taking place will influence all people and countries, but there will be regional variations. The Western world will see the most fundamental changes, and there will be one particular decade—the s—that will carry the same monumental importance as the year did for the citizens of many European countries.

That was the year that several rranders of struggle between the people and the ruling feudal class 202 in revolution. Suddenly Europeans had entered a new era. There are a number of analytical computer-based tools for projecting the outcomes of different assumptions concerning climate gas emissions during the rest of this century.

To bring some order to the plethora of forecasts, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC in established a set of six standard scenarios for global socioeconomic-technological development to IPCC uses these scenarios to estimate the future climate gas emissions in each scenario and provide assessment reports that reflect the current knowledge about the resulting climate change in each scenario. The latest assessment, published inconcluded that the global average surface temperature is most likely to increase by 2.

The temperature increase by was estimated to be between 1. The current temperature is 0. Will humanity come to its senses and deliberately slow economic growth in order to save the planet?

I think ranxers, but I do think there will be a shift in the composition of future economic activity, so it becomes less damaging to values that are currently not priced in the marketplace. ganders

Forty years ago when I read The Limits to Growth I already believed that growth in total resource use population times per capita resource use would stop within the next forty years. The modeling analysis of the Limits team was a strong confirmation of that commonsense belief, based on principles going back at least to Malthus and earlier classical economists.

Historically, economic growth has increased both consumption levels and the loads on the environment. The question now is whether consumption growth can continue while we reduce the human ecological footprint.


And, especially, while we dramatically curtail climate gas emissions. Today, in the framework of sustainable development, some argue that continued growth in GDP may be compatible with avoiding an environmental disaster.

A recent example of this rather optimistic way of thinking appears in a report from the OECD. A green growth strategy is centered on mutually reinforcing aspects of economic and environmental policies.

2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

It takes into account the full value of natural capital as a factor of production and its role in growth. Inthe prospect for renewable energy looked gloomier than it did a year ago. Particularly in Europe, the financial crisis has led to radical cuts in incentives and targets for renewables.

In the United States, and other markets, electricity prices are stagnating or even declining, not least due to tanders supply from the arnders shale-gas industry. The prospects for randets global climate deal that could trigger the required investments in green energy seem depressingly far away.

It is not surprising, therefore, that shares in clean-tech companies have dropped more than in any other industry sector over the last eighteen months. Inonly two countries, France and China, will be generating any electricity from nuclear energy at all—and both will have decided to get out of nuclear altogether by I suspect there are few people who subscribe to such a view today.

Despite the Fukushima reactor disaster in springthe prevailing mood in many countries in autumn remained broadly supportive of some kind of nuclear renaissance. randets

However, even before Fukushima, this renaissance was not quite all it was made out to be. The key actors in this story are small, typically just a few millimetres.

In fact, planktonic Calanus relatives of crabs and lobsters remind us that the big players are not always large in size. But in the Arctic seas, Calanus are large in numbers, and they play a vital role. They are among the noble group of organisms that definitely earn the title keystone species.

And understanding what could happen to Calanus as Arctic waters warm tells us much about the future of life in high-latitude seas. Ecological and economic systems share several properties, including the fact that predicting their future is difficult because everything in them depends on everything else. They are both characterised by multiple interacting feedback loops—cause-and-effect cycles that now and then produce counterintuitive responses.

Sometimes, change is gradual. At other times, seemingly small impacts can trigger a big reaction and possibly set in swing irreversible large-scale change. The scale and speed of this urban growth will exceed anything witnessed before in human history. This increase of 1. Most of the growth in city dwelling will occur in what is currently called the developing world, principally in Asia and Africa.

China and India alone will account for more than one-third of the total increase. Much of the growth will result from natural increases—higher birth than death rates—within existing cities. But a significant minority will come from rural to urban migration and urban area reclassification. The migrants will be motivated by both the pull of better employment opportunities and social services and the push of displacement caused by rural environmental and economic degradation.

Will it be possible to feed the world population in ? But the answer, I believe, is both yes and no. Sufficient volumes of food can be produced, but I think the price of the food will be so high that the poor of the world will not be able to afford a decent diet.

This will hold even more true if the world decides to considerably scale up the use of biofuels, which will be bought by affluent drivers at prices determined by the price of fossil fuels. And this is more, per unit of grain equivalent, than the poor can pay.

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years by Jørgen Randers

Scarcity of high-quality animal protein—partly from land-based animals and partly from fish and other products from salt or freshwater—will confront us over the next forty years. Total world protein production will likely remain similar to present-day levels. The catch of marine fish has already stagnated and may decline dramatically toward But the decline will be compensated for through aquaculture production, as long as there is enough feed. The availability of feed, too, randerrs determine supplies of land-based protein such as beef, chicken, and pork.


This diplomat was surprisingly honest. She admitted that she had not one positive vision for Pakistan. She was candid about a view that leaders widely hold but seldom acknowledge: It is unlikely leaders can do anything about it.

Hence, their job is to make sure their people will lose last. Byfor many materials, and especially metals, urban mining will exceed extractive mining. That is to say, it will become more economically attractive to recover and recycle than to dig and refine. This transformation will be driven by a combination of three key factors. First will be the increasing scarcity of some naturally occurring metal ores.

Second will be high level of societal stocks for many of the more common elements such as iron and aluminum. And third will be ever-higher processing costs associated with ore refining.

Biodiversity is the diversity of life at various levels of organisation, ranging from genes to species, ecosystems, biomes, and landscapes. As far as we can tell, the earth just before the appearance of modern humans was the most biodiverse it has ever been during the 3.

The fossil record shows us that there have been five mass extinctions in the last million years or so, all due to natural causes such as meteorite impacts or flood basalt events, or possibly because of drastic internal reorganizations within biotic communities, but the greatest and fastest mass extinction is happening now and is entirely due to the economic activities of modern industrial societies.

Many of these cities will be very big ten to forty million people. Furthermore, many of the smaller cities one to five million will be surrounded by huge urbanized areas closely connected to the infrastructure of the city. In the industrialized world, the infrastructure will be well developed so people can easily move and meet. In the less industrialised societies, the big cities will be divided into two kinds of communities, as they are today: The center or multiple centers will be part of the industrialized world, with adequate infrastructure.

The periphery will be huge shantytowns basically without infrastructure. However, the slums will be more integrated in the economy than presently. A new division of labor will develop within the megacity. Parts randrrs the slum may, for instance, specialize in recycling, as we can observe in some of 205 large Indian cities today, while other parts may do intensive agriculture. Thirty percent of the food consumed in Kampala today is produced in the metropolitan area. It might seem foolhardy to try to forecast the development in health and medicine in forty years to come.

Looking back explains why. Unpredictable discoveries changed medicine. Just one hundred years ago, there were hardly any really effective interventions in medical practice. Granted, we had caregivers and surgeons, and chloroform and ether had been known for fifty years. X-ray imaging emerged in Later randera contrast angiography, then computerised imaging, followed by ever more advanced methods of making pictures raders the human interior.

The last forty years have brought spectacular progress, in the real sense of the word. It is an ranedrs prediction that, forty years from now, human beings will have little place on the battlefield.